With Mississippi in the books, we now have six solid weeks until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.  Six long weeks of… what, exactly?  As Howard asked earlier, where is this thing headed?

Let’s start with what we know.  Obama leads in delegates, 1606-1484.  Obama has won 29 contests, to Clinton’s 14.  And Obama leads the popular vote by more than 700,000 votes (not including Iowa, Nevada, Washington State and Maine, which haven’t yet reported their final vote totals).  Much has been made of the fact that it is almost practically impossible for Hillary to catch Obama in pledged delegates.  There just aren’t enough contests left.  But if you look at the numbers, the same is pretty much true of the popular vote as well.  A 700,000 vote difference is a lot to overcome in the time remaining.  To put that number into context, Clinton’s biggest win – in California, where more than four million people voted – was by a margin of some 400,000 votes.  In New York, Clinton won by some 300,000 votes.  Even if she wins all of the remaining contests, which is not practical, it is highly unlikely that she can make up the difference.  There just aren’t enough “big” states where she can build up a large margin of victory.  (Another interesting number: even if you count Michigan and Florida, where Obama either wasn’t on the ballot or didn’t campaign, he still leads in the popular vote.)

All of which leads to the conclusion that, unless something really drastic or odd happens, Obama is going to end up in two months or so with more popular votes, more delegates and more states won.  My best guess is that if that happens, most of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates – some 300 at last count – will swing towards Obama and put him over the magic 2,025 number.  But what if that doesn’t happen?  What if Hillary refuses to concede, or enough superdelegates go her way to prevent Obama from reaching the necessary majority?

One thing I don’t see happening is a split ticket.  I don’t think either of these candidates has any desire to serve as the vice-president of the other.  Nor do I think that either of them would even want to offer it to the other.  If Obama wins, I think Hillary becomes a Supreme Court justice (if Obama wins the general election) or the first female Senate Majority Leader (if Obama wins or loses).  If Hillary wins, I think Obama bides his time in the Senate for a few more years and then runs for Governor of Illinois in 2010.  Or maybe she offers him a cabinet post, like Attorney General (he was, of course, a constitutional law professor and a civil rights attorney).  Both candidates have good options, and neither would be well-served by being a running mate.